Tuesday, 7 February 2012

who will be queen o'the may

local elections of course, dummies, what did you think I was talking about?  Personally I shall be rather more focused on the presidential election here in France, the first round of which is I believe is on 22nd April, and I will be very surprised if there is not a second round (one candidate has to get over 50% for that to happen).  Angela Merkel was here yesterday campaigning for Sarko for talks about the eurozone and the economy.  Francois Hollande (Parti Socialiste) is high in the polls,, and the third placed, Marine Le Pen, Front National, is currently struggling to get the 500 nominations she needs from elected individuals.  She is coming to Strasbourg on Sunday - a great deal of Front National support is in Alsace, fortunately not in the city of Strasbourg, but in the villages.  She ought to speak to them in Alsatian, but I bet she can't.  Even I can manage a little.  Even Miss France (who is from these parts) spoke the language when she was crowned.  The fourth placed is Francois Bayrou, who is some kind of LibDem and thus doesn't count.  And then there is the Front de Gauche, supported by the communists and by the unions.  Only 7% of the French workforce belongs to a union.  Currently the airlines are on strike.  And the Greens, who will do quite well.  I like Eva Joly of their ilk, who is blonde, wears red glasses and is Norwegian.

Anyway, readers, what will happen in Reading?  Labour of course have a minority administration.  I can make better predictions for the wards in the Reading East constituency than for the West.  Because, er, you know,  constituency boundaries matter, in democratic terms.  Don't they?  Oh, please yourselves.

 Grn gain Park from Lab.  Lab gain Redlands from LD.  Lab gain Katesgrove from LD.  Con hold Church.  Con hold Caversham.  Con gain Tilehurst from LD.

The Katesgrove result is not a certain one, because Cllr Matt Rodda (Lab) was caught lying to the public a while ago, and the electorate don't like that kind of malarkey.  But it seems the LibDems are demoralised.  There's still time for them to grow a backbone though.

Minster?  Others?  Dunno.  Give me your predictions, readers.  Surprised to see so little on Facebook from Reading, other parties around the country have a great presence there.  I would single out Plymouth in this respect.


Anonymous said...

Warren Swaine to win Katesgrove for the Matilda the Cat Party.

Peppard to elect two Tory councillors - or more, if there are more factions by then.

Bob O'Neill to run naked round the IDR in a bid to prove he's more fit for office than Tony Page.

Who cares?

jonnymorris said...

Minster Labour. Church should be a Labour gain if the Reading Party is working properly. Labour gain Reading from NOC.
Thanks for the comment about Plymouth. I learned from the best (I include Earl in that).
We should take Plymouth off the Tories.

Anonymous said...

At a guess they win Redlands, Church and Katesgrove. Park is interesting because the voters there have only been given the choice of Hartley and Basher over the last four years so god knows what they'll do now they have a new Labour candidate, Agree Rodda being caught lying and the naff choice of Rose Williams as the sucsessor means Katesgrove is far from safe. Labour are no where in Kentwood as far as I can see, as for Caversham the Tories will probably hold but the Labour candidate there is local so who knows.

Jane Griffiths said...

on the contrary I thought Rose Williams was a good choice, who might redeem them. Of course when they selected her they didn't know they would be caught lying.

Anonymous said...

Nah you've got Katesgrove wrong - part of the reason its failing is half the members and in specific the young members won't campaign in the ward because of something to do with the selection.

Anonymous said...

It's interesting to read your contributors' predictions but yours should be taken with a large pinch of salt Jane.
You've been away too long and it's obvious you're either guessing or playing it safe.
What's the next insight, Cons to hold Mapledurham ?

Anonymous said...

Last year's Labour victor in Church
upset his electorate by promising to oppose the Shinfield Road traffic lights, and then doing the opposite. Church ward hates both Page and Willis.

Jane Griffiths said...

Anonymous it is not my predictions, such as they are, that matter here. It is those of others, who are actually in Reading, that I want to hear. So. well spotted, - sort of.